Mitsuru Fukuda, Research Papers Abstract (Nihon University, College of Risk Management)

* Columbia University, Visiting Scholar (2008 - 2010)
SIPA (School of International Public Affairs)
SIWPS (Arnold Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies)

420 West 118th Street
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* Nihon University, College of Risk Management
A Professor in the Department of Risk Management

Back to TOP page (Mitsuru Fukuda HP)

22)"Counterterrorism policy and crisis management system in the U.S.A." Council for Public Policy.

How will the change of administration from Bush to Obama make counterterrorism policy and crisis management system change? The purpose of this book is to report the result of interview surveys for authorities of crisis management like FBI, NCTC, DHS, and FEMA, media like Washington Post, and think tanks like Rand Corporation and CSIS. And I would like to consider counterterrorism policy held by Bush administration since 911 terrorist attacks in 2001.

Introduction: The format of this book as a research report 3
Chapter 1: Counterterrorism policy of the Obama administration 10
Chapter 2: Actual condition on research of counterterrorism in the U.S.A. 16
2.1. Reform of Intelligence 17
2.2. Responding to Network of Islam and Terrorists 19
2.3. The measures for regional disaster prevention and First Responders 21
2.4. Freedom & Human rights vs. Safety & Security in Counterterrorism 24
Chapter 3: Organizational reform for counterterrorism 27
3.1. DHS: Comprehensive counterterrorism and homeland security 27
3.2. FEMA: Success and failure in its organizational reform 36
3.3. NCTC: Integration of Intelligence and sharing of information 50
3.4. CIA: Reform of Intelligence 57
3.5. FBI: Counterterrorism in JTTF and NJTTF 69
3.6. TOPOFF: Training for measure against aftermath of terrorist attack 77
3.7. NSA: Reinforcement of information monitoring system 85
Chapter 4: Warning system for counterterrorism 88
4.1. Homeland Security Advisory System 88
4.2. Biowatch Program 92
4.3. Emergency Alert System in FCC 101
4.4. Warning system using mobile media: Notify NYC 108
Chapter 5: Measures of responding to aftermath of terrorist attack and First Responder 112
5.1. Incident Command System (ICS)
5.2. Standardized Emergency Management System (SEMS) 112
5.3. Problems of Emergency medical service: the systems of MMRS and MERC 132
5.4. Volunteer efforts by American Red Cross 140
5.5. Counterterrorism research in universities and think tanks 143
Chapter 6: Problems of terrorism and media 148
6.1. Terrorism and mass media: Journalism of television and Newspaper 148
6.2. Terrorism and Internet 159
Conclusion: Toward counterterrorism in Japan 162

21) 'Issues on Alert, Evacuation Behavior and Emergency Medical Delivery of Afflicted People in Terrorism.' "Fire Safety & Disaster Preparedness," Vol. 25, Summer, 2008, Tokyo Horei Publishing Co., LTD.

When Terrorist attack took place, it is vital how intelligence agencies catch it, and how government alert people and evacuate them. In Japan, there are plenty of studies and experiences for disaster countermeasure like how to alert people, how to evacuate people, and how to provide an emergency medical care, although the history of counterterrorism is short. In this paper I would like to consider whether it is possible to apply the experiences of alerting, evacuation, and emergency medical delivery in a time of disaster to counterterrorism. In addition, I would like to examine new pattern of counterterrorism with comparing the cases in Japan to those in the U.S.A. Especially I would like to consider problems of 'J-Alert', a warning system in Japan, and examine the evacuation measures according to phenomena called as 'normalcy bias' that can be seen in a evacuation behavior of people in a time of disaster. And furthermore, I hope to point out problems of emergency medical delivery by Emergency Medical Information System in Japan, and suggest how to improve them.

20) 'Public Relations of Risk-Management and Media Strategy', "Monthly Koho" August, 2008, No. 8, Japan Public Relations Association, pp. 22-25.

The matter in question in crisis management is how to offer information to residents, that is, what the successful risk-communication should be. In crisis like natural disaster and terrorist attack, Japanese government and local authorities are dependent on the community wireless system. This system is also utilized for ?eJ-Alert?f system corresponding to emergency situations like natural disaster, casualty, terrorist attack, and missile attack. This type of emergency publicity, which is dependent on only one media, is not enough, and it is necessary to establish distributed emergency publicity that information would be offered by a combination of various media like television, internet, mobile phone, and so on. I call it "coss-madia publicity". People has various lifestyle and their level of media literacy also varies. That is why we need "cross-media publicity" based on this kind of marketing approach for corresponding to such people in various needs. In this paper, I suggested a model named as "multi-platform system" for cross-media publicity.

19) 'Public Consciousness of Insecurity for Crime in Risk Society: Risk Communication Approach for Terrorism' "The Study of Security Science", 2008, vol.10, the Association for the Study of Security Science, pp. 209-228.

How do people feel uneasy about crisis like terrorist attack? What factor causes their uneasiness? I conducted three social surveys, and then examined what they feel crisis on. As a result of covariance structure analysis based on those data, it was revealed that there are "hazard-based risk" consisted of terrorist attack, war, and pollution, "accident-based risk" consisted of traffic accident, fire, robbery, and disaster, and "life-based risk" consisted of job loss, income decrease, and pension problem as factors of uneasiness on crisis. In addition, it was also revealed that media had the greatest impact on people as a factor of their uneasiness in crisis. Thus risk-based uneasiness correlated strongly with media use, and moreover as a result of multiple linear regression analysis, it also became clear that there was cause-and-effect relationship between them. The result further showed that people wanted to be educated on these kinds of crisis. In order to relieve their risk-based uneasiness, social education on crisis should be offered to them.

18) "Transfiguration and Future of Media". Department of Journalism, College of Law, Nihon University (eds.), Yachiyo Shuppan, 2007.

Schmid (1982) argues that terrorism is a process of communication to achieve political persuasion by violence. Hoffman(1982), an authority on terrorism study, concludes that there is common characteristics in all terrorist groups. It is that there is no one who act purposelessly. Every group aims to gain a greatest effect from one act, further shows their power to control people, and then try to accomplish their aim. Jenkins (1974) argues that terrorism is a theater. He points out that to become the target of media attention, terrorists dramatize their plan of attack deliberately. When thinking of terrorism as a theatrical crime, terrorists are not only performers, but also its directors, and their audience is the public. And media offers their stage nowadays. It is pointed out that there is a symbiotic relation between terrorists and media in the process of political communication by terrorism.
On the other hand, there is a principle of laissez-faire between government and media, which guarantees perfect freedom of media coverage in all situations. According to Schmid(1982), the following three directions are recognized in the relationship of them in crisis: 1.) government censorship, 2.) government-media arrangements, 3.) internal media regulation. The relationship in the U.S.A. is 3.) while 2.) in the U.K.. However, there is no communication route between government and media on terrorism in Japan. NHK, a Japanese public broadcaster, formulated a guideline of broadcasting consisted of 12 chapters in March 2007. In the chapter 8, which is on international issues, there is "2. terrorism and coverage of war" as a section, but it is not as sophisticated as that of BBC in the U.K.?@It is necessary to have further argument and transaction on terrorism influencing life of people between government and media in Japan.
It is not too much to say that risk-communication in media is the key to the counterterrorism in current information network society. Terrorism is a theatrical crime involving media, government, and the public. It is essential that the public be educated to have media literacy.

1.Terrorism as political communication
2.Media-mediated terrorism
The purpose of terrorism
Terrorists using media
Correlation between terrorists and media
3.Media facing global terrorism with global coverage
Terrorism in global risk society
The impact of 911
Characteristics of global coverage of terrorism
4.Relationship between government and media on terrorism

17) "How did they talk about Islam? : a discourse analysis of commentary on Islam in media coverage of international terrorism." Keio Media and Communications Research, 2007, No.57, pp.49-65.

In today, an issue of terrorism in international news is reported in connection with the incidents which occur in Islam every day.?@According to Said, it can be said that problems in Islam are considered as problems of the representation of media (Said:1981). In "Covering Islam", he has indicated that problems in Islam depend on how to understand foreign cultures such as Islamic culture in media discourse. How does readers receive media discourse on Islam, and as a result, how is the stereotype formed?
While Islam issues are originally various, complicated phenomena, how are they represented as the stereotype generalized, simplified, and treated as trivial problems by the media? Such a problem may occur in the news reports in Japan in the same way. It can be analyzed how Islam has been told and represented in international news by making a discouse analysis and conversation analysis of the talks produced by a broadcaster and commentators appearing in the news program which consist of sound bite in a studio.
In this thesis, international news on Islam are extracted from reports on foreign countries covered by the news program of three in the TV station in Japan ( NHK?fs "News 10", TBS?fs "News 23", and TV Asahi?fs "News station" and "Report Station") in ten months from November, 2003, and furthermore, the news of terrorism issues were focused on to reveal how terrorism issues in international news reporting were explained in connection with Islam by making conversation and discourse analysis of commentaries in those news programs by specialists of Islam issue. How Islam was represented by TV news was analyzed through the following three approaches as 1) "Islam issue" represented by network structure of actor in news 2) Islam represented by dialogical network created in news 3) Image of Islam represented by membership categorization device.

16) Introduction to Counter-terrorism (edited by Miyasaka, Naofumi) Aki Shobou. July, 2006. Chapter 3 "Terrorism and media, mass communication".

?@Problems of the media and mass communication are critical issues for counterterrorism. On July 7, 2005, synchronized terrorist attacks targeting transportation network such as subway and bus and its passengers in London occurred, and as a result, a great number of people had fallen victim. Two days after this incident, an international terrorism brigade affiliated with Al-Qaida called "AbuHafsal-Masri Brigades" claimed responsibility for the attacks, and this claim received media exposure immediately, and was carried to people in the world by the media power. Whenever terrorist incident occurs, the terrorist asserted responsibility to the world and continues giving great fear and uneasiness to the global society. What information does the media coverage of international terrorism offer the audience on TV or newspaper every day? What influence does it leaves behind?
Wilkinson described "terrorism is essentially the psychological weapon dependent on conveying its threat to society more widely", and he points out that the means of reporting are the media. (Wilkinson:1998) Hoffman also indicated that terrorism is the violent act which is the means of commanding attention, conveying messages by effect of advertising, accomplishing their goals, and it?fs also a political communication. 9/11 was made a spectacle of by images which the general public had recorded with their video camera, while 7 July 2005 London bombings was made a spectacle of by images of CCTV in the street and at stations. In Iraqi hostage-taking incident, a digital video image of hostages which was recorded by the armed group was sent to the satellite TV station Al-Jazeera, and was broadcasted to the world. In this meaning, terrorist incident vs. its countermeasure can be considered as war of propaganda, psychological war, and information war.
It seems that Terrorist works symbiotically with the media. Such a symbiotic relation is generated when terrorists?f desire to "give terror to society, and also make an appeal for their advocacy and higher principle" meets the media?fs desire to "broadcast detail fact on terrorist incidents to the world, and also reveal the cause and social background of them". As a result, terrorism news censorship theory that the media coverage for those incidents should be controlled come into being. How risk for the media coverage of terrorism can be controlled in a terrorist incident has been examined from the point of view of risk-communication with analyzing the problem of the media coverage for a series of terrorist incidents that occurred in the U.S.A. such as the case of the hostage incident at the Iranian Embassy and the case of TWA flight 847 hijacked Nacos analyzed, as a case study

15) "International terrorism coverage representing global risk society : Considering the case of the 11 March 2004 Spain train bombings", Keio Media and Communications Research,2006?DNo.56, pp.109-128.

It can be said that people in today are in risk society consisted of various risks, and a terror attack is also one in the various risks for a man of today. Beck (Beck:2002) points out three risks in "global risk society" which has been classified into 1) an ecological risk, and 2) the global financial risk, and 3) the risk of the terrorism by the transnational terror network. The characteristics of the risk in today's society is considered as a part of process of the recursive modernization that consists of generalization, latency conversion, personalization, and compounding, and it?fs insisted that the necessity that terrorism which is one form of today?fs risk is considered as one of other various risks. Furthermore Beck (Beck: 2003) points out that we?fve got the new geopolitics reality which has no distinction between war and peace, no distinction between war and crime, no distinction between attack and defense, and no distinction between front and rear in the global risk society after 9.11 terrorist incidents. The terrorism view in the world is also just changing as an average citizen's risk view is changing with the advent of global risk society.
Terrorist incident occurs frequently since the Iraqi war in 2003, in this time when each country in Europe and the U.S. which centers the U.S.A. is stationed in Iraq. What terrorist incidents occurred in the world, and how did the media in Japan report them? At that time, there was a probability that terrorist incidents would be occurred also in Japan. In such a dangerous situation, how did the media in Japan report international terrorist incidents occurred outside Japan? For this thesis, three leading news programs broadcasted by NHK, TBS, and TV Asahi in Japan covering terrorist incidents after the Iraqi war in 2003 were recorded for six months, and how they reported these incidents were made content analysis of. Especially the 2004 Madrid train bombings were picked up as case study, and how the TV news program in Japan reported terrorist incidents was analyzed, and some constituents such as the image, narration, sound bites, claim of responsibility, and victims?f voice of the coverage for this incident were analyzed to reveal the characteristics of reporting terrorist incidents. Reporting international terrorist incidents on TV news program makes audience think of such events as "events which can occur around me anytime" but ?e?ffire on the other side of the river", and in such a phenomenon, some influence of globalization of terrorism could be found.

14) "The influence of DA Notice on media control in the United Kingdom", Sophia Journalism Studies, 2005, Vol.1, pp.93-112.

The U.K. that is a country with unique culture of law has a unique institution on the relation between national security and the media. The typical one is "Defence Advisory Notice (DA Notice)". The DA Notice is the institution to give the authority for "Defence, Press and Broadcasting Advisory Committee (DPBAC)" whose members are representatives for government and the media to examine some coverage relevant with national security before broadcasting it. They request the media not to broadcast depending on an issue and situation. This institution covers the media coverage involving national security and even involving terrorist incidents. On the decision of this committee, each media was given some advices and guidance in written form or face to face. This system is, however, voluntary and optional, and not legally binding. When some program creators and journalists get involved in coverage of some issues on national security and national secrets, there?fs possibility to touch a problem covered in "Official Secrets Act 1989", and they're requested to work within the limits. It's "the DA Notice" that makes it possible for program creators and journalists to examine whether a case touch on these problems (that is a issue violating national security such as national defense and counterterrorism). Government doesn?ft force to withhold to broadcast such a issue, but the media does it voluntarily with due regard to common good on this committee?fs advice. The DA Notice covers the following five:
(1) the military's tactics, plan and ability
(2) nuclear weapons, conventional arms and equipment
(3) safety for secret code, communication
(4) location of specific facilities
(5) British national defence, intelligence agency and special force

On the DA Notice's authority, DPBAC deliberate the media's problems relevant with national security. This committee consists of 18 members, one executive secretary and his assistant. The chairman is selected from Ministry of Defence and the media one by one. And also 4 members are selected from government such as Ministry of Defence and Home Office, and 12 members from the media. Members on the media?fs side are from the newspaper company such as "The Financial Times", "Daily Mail", and "The Sun", and TV station, news agency, and some association such as "BBC", "ITV", and so on. This member are selected among people holding the position of "Editorial Policy" or "Managing Editor" that is responsible for editing, and they play a coordinating role for a matter of national security in each agency.
Until now, a number of guidelines are enacted for regulatory and advantage of providing information on the media coverage for a contingency. Those guidelines negotiated among Ministry of Defence and each media agency were compiled in the selection "Green Book". And also BBC edited their original guideline "Producer?fs Guidelines" in 1989. The latest edition comprised in 43 chapters. Moreover, BBC made up some guidelines to do fair coverage for Afghanistan War on November, 2001 and Iraqi War on March, 2003. In Japan requested to develop the research of risk management, it?fs certain that in the realm of that, there would be a lot of things to learn from the relation between the government of the U.K. and the media.

13) "Terrorism attack to the lifeline" Keisatsu-jiho (Police Science Review) 1999,December?Cpp.24-30.

Today's society strongly relies on communication line such as telephone and internet, and network of electric cable for electric power distribution. In the late 90?fs, Lifeline such as communication line and electric cable went down, and such an accident and incident caused a lot of damage in social activities. The threat of terrorism to the lifeline today to break up important facility of the network, and expand damage through this broken network was considered by analyzing the power line cutting incident and NTT communication line incident in Osaka in the 90?fs as cases. Today, terrorists damage people not only by attacking people directly, but also by breaking up lifeline in the society. So it is necessary to have some countermeasure against such a lifeline terrorism which attack peaceful life of people indirectly.

12) "Some problems about information management in disaster", Security Science Review, 2001, No.3.

In Kobe earthquake occurred in 1995, it took a lot of time for office of Prime Minister to get the information of the damage to know the condition of afflicted area, and as a result, the disaster control was one step behind. In the same year, Tokyo subway Sarin gas attack was committed by AUM-Shinrikyo. This incident can be considered as one of urban-type disaster caused by the chemical weapon, Sarin. How to carry a lot of victims to a great number of hospitals, and how each hospital would cooperate to work for their cure for victims revealed not to be well-established after this incident, and the vulnerability of medical network among police, fire departments, and hospitals was revealed at the same time. In countermeasures against disaster, information flows and a problem of information network proved to be quite important. It can be said that the organizations like police, fire department, and self-defense force should take a central role of measures in the time of disaster. Especially police establishes disaster countermeasures office in a time of disaster, and sends off some police force and helicopter in the afflicted area to collect information, rescue victims, trace missing persons, provide with the evacuation guidance, and regulation of traffic. In such a time of disaster, it was considered how information should be controlled, and be made effective use of.
It's the information of victims, evacuation, traffic information, and information about the well-being that was necessary for countermeasure against disaster. It is an important problem how to collect this information, by what kind of route public administration should be provided with them for the media and inhabitants. Furthermore, there?fs hardware side to offer disaster information and software side to receive it for the control of that information. The problems in a time of disaster are organized as the following: 1) uncertainty increase, 2) urgency increase, 3) building consensus temporarily, 4) degradation of independence, and 5) change of participation and mobilization base. For clearing these problems, it?fs route for giving out information, some function for controlling it and authorizing it, and some triage function to sift through it that are necessary for an organization for disaster countermeasure. And then, it is necessary to build a effective system in which the organization such as public administration, police, fire department, hospital, and self-defense force share information each other, work together effectively as actors playing a role of disaster countermeasure.

11) "Problems of Communications and Information System in Disaster Medicine Disaster Information", Journal of Japan Society for Disaster Information Studies, 2006, No.4, pp.72-82.
Mitsuru FUKUDA,
Yasutoshi MORI
In order to examine the actual condition of communications and information system in disaster medicine (In order to examine how the information system of disaster medicine works and its problems,), the nationwide questionnaire survey of fire departments and interview survey of several advanced disaster prevention agencies (Tokyo Fire Department, Amagasaki Municipal Fire Department, Fukuoka Fire Prevention Bureau) were carried out.
According to the survey the following points were found.
1) Communication tool for transportation between rescue crew and medical institutions depends excessively on vulnerable fixed telephone service and cellular.
2) The Wide Disaster and Emergency Medicine Information Systems by Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and prefectural governments have not been fully exploited. There is a negative spiral between fire departments and hospitals.
3)A hearing investigation of actual emergency medicine also have revealed that the emergency service officials have a tendency to depend excessively on vulnerable telephone network (fixed telephone service [FTS] and cellular).
By interviewing staff in several groups of emergency medical care, it has been also revealed that the emergency service officials have a tendency to depend excessively on vulnerable telephone network (fixed telephone service [FTS] and cellular).

10) "Influence of news about AUM-Shinrikyo and Religion consciousness in university students ???@From questionnaire investigation for 7 university students in Tokyo area and student believers." Review of Media, Information and Society, Vol.6, ISICS-The University of Tokyo, 1995, pp.1-84.

The case to be related to 'AUM-Shinrikyo' is one of the most important events in 1995. Various media reported news of AUM-Shinrikyo every day.
We did questionnaire investigation for university students to make clear the point about Contact degree to the news of AUM-Shinrikyo, The influence from the news, Consciousness and interest degree to religion, Interest degree to occult and science, Psychology and personality for the religion etc. In this paper, we will report a result of the questionnaire investigation. As a result, the following points became clear.
(1) In the time when a case about AUM was reported, contact time for the mass media increased, but contact pattern to media was similar to usual times.
(2) On social attitude, relation of interaction was shown between usual media contact pattern and the items such as an attitude to the news, an attitude to the police investigation, an attitude to a religious corporation.
(3) it became clear that a feeling of world uneasiness in short term was related with mass communication contact, but cultivation hypothesis wasn't inspected totally. And, about the agenda setting hypothesis, effect by television contact became clear only about recognition to religious corporation problem.
(4) On consciousness scale and university students?f interest in religion, the following result was provided. Service desire to someone else is strong, and the student who has interest toward religion has an aim in the life, etc.
(5) On the degree of belief for occult, woman was higher than man, and, on the degree of belief for science, man was higher than woman. And, it became clear that belief for occult was related with belief for religion.
And, we got cooperation of NHK, and did same questionnaire investigation for the students who believed in 'Shinnyoen'. Finally, we will report it about the findings.

9) "Vulnerability of the Advanced Network Society: A Study of the Social Impact of 1998.10.28 Accident in the Osaka NTT Network", Review of Media, Information and Society, Vol.13, ISICS-The University of Tokyo, 1999, pp.117-152?D
Shunji Mikami,
Isao Nakamura,
Mitsuru Fukuda,
Osamu Hiroi

In today's society, the advanced telecommunication networks have been developed and penetrating into our daily life. As our society becomes more dependent on the networks, the societal impact of an accident in the core network upon various social systems increase and get serious. Thus, it is quite important to do research on the social impact of such an accident intensively and derive lessons and possible measures in order to explore the ways to construct the disaster-resisting system in the common carriers, system users, and the general public.
At 10:07 of October 28, 1998, the exclusive telecommunication lines of NTT Higashi Yodobashi branch in Osaka became impaired and about 19,000 exclusive lines became out of service for about ten hours and 3,239 users were affected by the accident. At several major domestic airports such as Kansai International Airport, the departures of airplanes were delayed for several hours. At the police departments and fire departments in Osaka, the emergency phone lines were temporarily interrupted. In several banks, the ATMs and CDs became unavailable for several hours.
In this paper, we report our research on the impact of the accident at the Osaka NTT network. We made interviews with the key personnel of NTT, air-traffic control agency, banks, stock exchange bureau, police department, fire department, and other network users who were affected by the accident.
From the research, we derived a causal model explaining the determinants of the damage of an accident in telecommunication networks. Three contributing factors were identified: importance of the system, degree of the impairment and network dependency of the system. The degree of impairment in a system is positively related with the area and time of the accident and is negatively related with the degree of backup system and recovering activities. Of these variables, it was found that the degree of network dependency, backup system and recovering activities are controllable factors and thus play the key role in mitigating damage.

8) "An Experimental Study for the Development of 'Robust' Disaster Warning(1)", Review of Media, Information and Society, Vol.8, ISICS-The University of Tokyo, 1996, pp.1-52.
Hirohisa Suzuki,
Yoshiro Kawakami,
Koji Murata,
Mitsuru Fukuda.

The disaster warning is a communication which shall be accomplished under an adverse environment ? a circumstance in which information is not properly communicated or in which the recipients of such information are not in the physical and/or psychological state of receiving it accurately. It is therefore of the utmost importance for the research into the effectiveness of "robust" enough to withstand exacting environmental conditions. This study is aimed at elucidating the requisites for the effective disaster warning in the light of its robust requirement. A "plain" warning(with text using commonly-understood words and expressions) and a "complex" warning (with text using technical terms and abstract expressions) were developed for two types of disasters respectively; earthquake and toxic gas leak, assuming that they be broadcast on the radio. In addition, two variables were given to the communication method by adopting "full text iteration" (read out the entire text and then reiterate it) and "sentence-by - sentence iteration" (divide the full text into the sentence units and reiterate by each unit) which, together with the above - mentioned text complexity variables, constituted a total of four experimental groups(Experiment 1). For the "plain" + "full text iteration" protocol, further variables of "fast" and "slow" reading speeds were given (Experiment 2) as well as the read out by a female announcer (Experiment 3). The experimental groups were so designed as to have 27 subjects each for a total 7 experimental protocols heretofore defined. While each experimental group was administered with the above prescribed experimental stimuli for two types of disasters, the physical hardship of environmental athwart to the proper communication of disaster warning was simulated through the recurring mute which was inserted to the stimuli at certain interval. It was anticipated that the higher the mute ratio in the total time, the greater the hindrance against the communication. For this study, three different lengths of mute were designed. The subjects first listened to an experimental stimulus under the high to the same text read for the third time at low mute ratio. The subjects were then measured for their level of comprehension about the warning content with the aim of evaluating the robustness of each experimental stimulates.
The main hypotheses of the experiment were as follows:
Hypothesis 1 : The level of comprehension about the warning texts shall become higher as the implementation of the experiment progresses.
Hypothesis 2 : The level of comprehension shall be higher with the plain warning text than it is with the complex text.
Hypothesis 3 : The level of comprehension shall be higher with the sentence - by - sentence iteration than it is with the full text iteration.
Hypothesis 4 : The level of comprehension shall be particularly high when the plain warning text is read and reiterated by sentence.
Hypothesis 5 : Slower reading speed shall facilitate easier comprehension.
The following summaries are results of the experiment. (1) The major effect from the implementation of the experiment procedure was clearly observed, hence Hypothesis 1 was supported. (2) The major effect of the complexity variable was salient with the gas leak warning, but was merely partially observed with the earthquake warning. (3) The iteration variables clearly rendered major effect in the case of earthquake warning, but had no effect with the gas leak warning. (4) The interaction of complexity and iteration parameters was only partially observed. (5) The effect of reading speed was recognized only with the earthquake warning, which exhibited higher comprehension level at "slower" reading mode.

7) "An Experimental Study for the Development of 'Robust' Disaster Warning (2)" Review of Media, Information and Society, Vol.9, ISICS-The University of Tokyo, pp.1-36.
Hirohisa Suzuki,
Yoshiro Kawakami,
Koji Murata,
Mitsuru Fukuda.

There is a wide recognition that a disaster warning, which informs of an imminent/befallen disaster and advises on appropriate actions to take, plays an important role in disaster containment as a measure to minimize the damage. It is not necessarily understood to an appropriate degree, however, that a disaster warning is markedly different from general communication in that it has to be propagated under a harsh, adverse environment. Indeed, very little research effort has been made to look into the effectiveness of communication in an adverse environment.
This study introduces the concept of "robustness" to explore the effectiveness of disaster warning, and in so doing aims at establishing a "method to develop an effective disaster warning" which renders enough robustness to persist a degrading communication environment. Its objective, in other words, is to explore ways to enhance the "robustness" of disaster warning in order to overwhelm various inhibiting factors which may precipitate from a confusion of emergency and a change in environment.
One group is ascribed to the deterioration of physical conditions which may precipitate a breakdown of communication channel or noise resulting in a disruption or disturbance of sound and images, or which may impair the audiovisual output for proper reception of sound or images. The other group stems from the degeneration of psychological conditions such as commotion in the wake of abnormality or attention disorder due to a change in physical environment, inducing a situation in which one cannot keep composure in contacting with information or logically process information. Cases involving the conditions of physical impediments to the disaster warning communication were detailed in Research I (Suzuki et al, 1996).
This study dealt with psychological factors as inhibiting conditions. When disaster forecast information or a warning against secondary disaster is communicated, the receiver of such information harbours a strong sense of insecurity and receives the information in a state of turmoil. An experiment was conducted with an assumption that under such a circumstance the attention to and the contact with a warning should naturally be hampered. More specifically, the experiment was so designed as to simulate a situation in which one cannot contact with a disaster warning at ease by way of imposing another work to the subjects while they were in contact with audiovisual disaster warning, and that the continuous display of superimposition by telop (television opaque projector) was to be verified for its validity as a requirement for robust warning which can convey critical information under such condition. The followings were hypothesised.

Hypothesis 1: When the telop was used, the subjects would score higher on the comprehension and memory of such critical information that was pertinent to the telop message.
Hypothesis 2: Under an inhibiting condition, the subjects would score less on the comprehension and memory of critical information
. Hypothesis 3: With the use of telop, the subjects would still score high even under an inhibiting condition on the comprehension and memory of such critical information pertinent to the telop message.
The result of the experiment supported each of the three hypotheses. The general effect from the continuous telop superimposition was recognised among the viewers of disaster warning, and a better understanding was realised for the critical information pertaining to the telop message (Hypothesis 1). Further, the comprehension of critical information was undermined in the wake of viewing obstruction which was believed to be a common occurrence in everyday setting (Hypothesis 2). It was also verified, however, that by utilizing the telop superimposition the following "robustness" could be added to the disaster warning information. With the use of telop, the critical information pertinent to the content of the telop message was understood almost to the same degree, in defiance of the inhibiting condition, as it might otherwise have been understood had it not been any inhibition (Hypothesis 3). Hence it can be concluded from above that the continuous display of telop superimposition is effective in reinfor
cing the robustness of disaster warning broadcast on TV at the time of emergency.
On the other hand, the experiment also elicited a case in which the continuous telop display, contrary to its effectiveness, became an impediment to the viewers' comprehension and memory of the images and sound in the background. This partially implies the need therefore for a thorough consideration for the telop usage. It calls for an organisational research into the interaction between the telop display and the audiovisual information.
This study is indicative of the fact that in a situation athwart to normal communication those factors which have not been stressed in the previous studies on the communication effectiveness exert a great influence. To take a step further, we shall remember that the common sense in the effectiveness research may paradoxically become a source of wrong information at the time of disaster. Efforts will have to be made to study an array of pre-developed warnings for their communication effectiveness in the presence of various inhibiting factors as per the nature of disaster and of communication medium. It is imperative to practically revise and develop a "robust warning" based on the results of such study. In the meantime, the effectiveness of communication has to be systematically re-verified under an adverse environment on the research level.

6) "The personal computer communication use in Kobe-Earthquake ; Contents analysis of earthquake disaster information in ?eearthquake information?f bulletin board of NIFTY-Serve", Journal of Information and Communication Research (Annual Report), The Japan Society of Information and Communication Research, 1996, pp.46-57.

In this paper, I aim at a various bulletin board and forum in the "earthquake information" service that "NIFTY-Serve" of personal computer communication network established after Kobe-Earthquake was any kind of thing, and to make clear how it was useful in the side of disaster information communication, and, in the main subject, I report a result of contents analysis of earthquake disaster information that the writer did.
I considered the possibility that utilized personal computer communication and network in a disaster by making clear whether any kind of user supplied any kind of information by it in personal computer network after an earthquake disaster.
As a result, in a bulletin board utilized intensively in earthquake disaster right after, a tendency to utilized safety information and the damage information by a non- victim was found. And, in the forum, it was utilized that dispatch of volunteer information and life information by victim oneself and volunteer.
Personal computer communication needs to be utilized in a disaster effectively after having taken into account such characteristic.

5) The Local Severe Rain in NASU, 1998: the Evacuation Activities of Inhabitants and Disaster Information. Review of Media, Information and Society, Vol.14, ISICS-The University of Tokyo, 2000, pp.193-282?D

Osamu Hiroi, Hiromichi Nakamori,
Mitsuru Fukuda, Yasutoshi Mori,
Naoko Magoshi, Tsuyoshi Kamita

In August, 1998, a local severe rain brought the big damage in Japan. In Nasu Town of Tochigi Prefecture, inhabitants were received the many damages. In Nasu, a heavy rain fell from daybreak on the 27th of August, and rivers such as yosasagawa or Kurokawa overflowed, and landslides got up. What kind of countermeasures did Nasu Town government office take then? How did the inhabitants of Nasu Town take refuge? We point out the effectiveness and problems by making clear the reality about countermeasures of Nasu Town and evacuation activities of inhabitants. We did listening comprehension investigation including the damage person of flood, self-governing bodies such as Nasu Town government office or Tochigi Prefecture agency, a weather Bureau. And the same time, We did questionnaire investigation for inhabitants of Nasu Town. What is that we understood from the result of investigation? When the flood occurred, in Nasu Town, the information about weather report and information about river weren't utilized fully.
We thought it is the cause that made the damage of flood so big. For measures of heavy rain to occur annually, the self-governing body should utilize the information about weather report fully.

4) "The Debris Flow in Hachimantai, 1997 and Dissemination of Disaster Information." Review of Media, Information and Society, Vol.12, ISICS-The University of Tokyo, 2000, pp.71-96.
Mitsuru Fukuda,
Hiromichi Nakamori
Isao Nakamura,
Osamu Hiroi

The Mud Flow in HCHIMANTAI occurred on May 11, 1997. In HACHIMANTAI, bridges and houses were broken, and the much damage went. But, there were no casualties. Even if it was large-scale mud flow disaster, why was it saved the residents?
To make clear the cause, we interviewed it for residents and public officials.
As a result, we found the following points.

(1) A resident discovered omen phenomenon.
(2) Information about outbreak of mud flow was communicated in an appropriate route quickly.
(3) Administration sent in refuge order early.
(4) Refuge area is a very small village.

To prevent the damage of disaster, these points are very important.

3) "Visual - Audio Information in TV News and Viewer's Memory", Journal of Mass Communication Studies, Japan Society for Studies in Journalism and Mass Communication, 1995, vol.46, pp.128-141.

In this paper, the relationship between TV news format and viewer's memory is considered. TV viewers mainly organize their knowledge and memories about world from TV news. But TV news viewers are affected by the way producers manipulate the form of TV news program. Not only content and meaning of TV news message, but also the way of manipulating the form of TV news affects the viewer's memory. TV news consists of talking heads, the spot, captions, graphics, narration, and back ground music. This paper considers how the manipulation of its factors affects viewer's memory.
First, TV news study, especially the study about TV news format and viewer's memory is classified roughly into as follows: 1) whether spot or visual scene is or not, 2) cut complexity and speed, 3) color and black-white, 4) camera angle effect, 5) primacy effect, 6) recapping effect, 7) caption effect, etc. The effects of this kind of variables have been verified by the experimental approach, and it found that they affect the viewer's cognitive process.
Second, to study TV news effect, one of the most important issue is visual-audio interaction in TV news. TV news has both visual information and audio information. And then, visual information and audio information mutually interact in viewer's cognitive process. Such an interaction affects viewer's memory. For example, when visual and audio are redundant, viewers understand and remember easily, but, when visual and audio are not redundant, viewers can't understand and remember easily. That is, when visual and audio are not redundant, they intervene each other, as a result of changing viewer's memory.
Hence, TV news viewers are affected by manipulation of news factors. Such a manipulation has various method. This paper points out the necessity of studying cognitive-level effect in TV news viewing.

2) "A Study of Organizer Effect on a Print Media:?@Cognitive psychological approach about effects of headlines and photographs.", Journal of Mass Communication Studies, Japan Society for Studies in Journalism and Mass Communication, 1995, Vol.47, pp.127-139.

In various way, contextual information (for example, headlines, titles, photographs, and captions) affect its following text. The affecting of contextual information to following text is called "Organizer effect". The organizer effect is classified to the three types, learning effect, manipulating and leading effect, selective effect.
In this paper, the author will report original four experiments to verify the three organizer effects of headlines and photographs. We can not testify the all of three effects very completely, but we could suggested the possibility of this kind of this effects.

1) "The use of electronic newspaper and the influence in the age of internet: A change for newspaper use examined from internet user survey." Journal of Information and Communication Research (Annual Report), The Japan Society of Information and Communication Research, 1997, pp.79-91.

It begins to be said that an electronic newspaper in Internet will come to threaten the purchasing and management of print newspaper as before. Will it happen really in the future that electronic newspapers seem to be replaced to print newspaper as before?
In this paper, I considered this problem on the basis of survey about Internet use and newspaper use. From a result of questionnaire investigation, I make clear a characteristic of user of electronic newspaper. And, I make clear how an electronic newspaper is utilized. In future, it is predicted that use of news will diversify, but it is predicted that there is the use too of print newspaper as before left. Judging from life time and life action, the print newspaper use is different from the electronic newspaper use fundamentally.

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